Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 14.003093 17.103889 20.570929 24.711628 29.498044 34.832518 41.201846
2025-03-23 9.783800 13.834438 18.885989 25.543272 33.970786 44.164150 57.293038
2025-03-30 7.030343 11.233073 16.959971 25.107007 36.143534 50.301583 69.525092
2025-04-06 5.781958 10.214929 16.701191 26.492354 40.449646 59.142812 85.501019
2025-04-13 4.080811 8.072817 14.389599 24.547056 39.812177 61.169139 92.435513
2025-04-20 3.337748 7.255492 13.863164 25.033043 42.518114 67.801465 105.863439
2025-04-27 2.803842 6.660156 13.558377 25.755603 45.546953 74.995003 120.396892
2025-05-04 2.412257 6.229092 13.438063 26.712806 48.949275 82.872193 136.262128
2025-05-11 2.035772 5.728948 13.098096 27.223375 51.627968 89.760817 150.961637
2025-05-18 1.653906 5.110472 12.423043 27.038423 53.102729 94.826869 163.114571
2025-05-25 1.276431 4.384722 11.400577 26.071521 53.130340 97.559098 171.763313
2025-06-01 1.018674 3.873216 10.719099 25.638722 54.000490 101.627124 182.600787
2025-06-08 0.709428 3.123946 9.429485 23.970704 52.756242 102.551823 189.206001
2025-06-15 0.596935 2.922874 9.371300 24.827886 56.268399 111.736009 209.742494
2025-06-22 0.450576 2.532486 8.756944 24.404621 57.299734 116.715252 223.613090
2025-06-29 0.397781 2.459097 8.942444 25.759088 61.873084 128.092241 248.606755
2025-07-06 0.259358 1.941974 7.782420 23.857564 59.777419 127.491840 253.337285
2025-07-13 0.210960 1.792881 7.639120 24.332560 62.545670 135.792552 273.628509
2025-07-20 0.175718 1.684724 7.594044 25.038851 65.843479 145.220278 296.241330
2025-07-27 0.149921 1.609955 7.638311 25.974639 69.694407 155.854114 321.364692
2025-08-03 0.122041 1.496422 7.522583 26.473845 72.624665 164.877277 343.956873
2025-08-10 0.091820 1.330636 7.173644 26.293005 74.023061 171.024482 361.617101
2025-08-17 0.062196 1.120403 6.585028 25.347684 73.594894 173.582363 372.852354